carbon action

If COP 15 is a success then we can expect a new international deal on emissions reductions to replace the existing system. Memo – the existing system is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, signed in 1992, which said the world should do something about global warming), with an attached protocol created in 1997 (Kyoto Protocol, which has details on how to deal with GHGs ) 

COP 15 has been debated in a series of negotiations over the last two years to try to replace Kyoto which runs out on 31 /12/2012.   However there are always difficulties with dealing with crises which do not seem immediately threatening such as Global Warming.   Some countries say they will not expend too much effort as other countries are not obliged to comply with the rules.  Some argue that China and USA (now responsible for 40% of current GHG ) should do more.  The table shows how the West has actually put up into the atmosphere 83.7% of the GHG that’s up there causing us to effectively choke on our own waste.  Hence China, India and Brazil feel that their national development is to be curtailed because the West over consumed the atmosphere as a waste site for their industry.  The concept at issue is one of “inter-generational equity”  The West got rich from 1800 to 1900 whilst the rest just provided slaves and raw materials – that’s the feeling in the “non-West” .

Now also we have the US saying it is not fair that US should cut back under Kyoto but China, India and Brazil are allowed emit without restriction.  Copenhagen will try to include China, India and Brazil as well as the US.  GW Bush pulled the US out of Kyoto for this reason.  Interestingly Bill Clinton and Al Gore signed up to Kyoto without Senate ratification as they knew the Senate would knock it down and they were a little “too cute” in signing it – knowing it would never pass into US law.

But if COP 15 is a success we will have  a real deal where all emitters will agree to and be bound by cuts in GHG output.  If such cuts can prevent serious global warming is unknown.  There are concerns for instance that the perma-frost in Siberia (and Canada) could thaw out and release millions of tonnes of bound methane leading to a potential surface global temperature rise of up to 8, 9 or 10 degrees Celsius.  Such an event would mean certain mass extinction of many species on Earth – of these homo sapiens would probably become extinct early in this mass extinction phase.   

There are so many issues at play here it is hard to know where to start !  But game theory has a part to play (pardon the pun [game-play])

The prisoners dilemma, in which two suspects are held in different rooms for questioning – the interrogator of Prisoner 1 says “ Prisoner 2 is talking like a canary – and your only way out is to implicate him”   The other interrogator says the same to the other prisoner – eventually they both give each other away based on fear and the feeling that they do not want to be shafted by the other guy.  But in fact they are both shafted, this is the game that was played at Kyoto and now again at COP 15.  It is not yet realised how severe global warming will impact out civilisation.  We need to cut GHG by 80% which means no travel to foreign climes unless required by national security reasons.  Aviation will dwindle to a pale shadow of itself within ten years, the EU are to include aviation in the ETS next year – this will surely spell the end for cheap air fares.

Another aspect of management and husbandry at play is the fact that the global commons (the atmosphere) is owned by no-one and therefore no one feels responsible for its upkeep. The UNFCCC flexible mechanisms tried to deal with this to some extent – imperfectly I know – but they did try.  By putting a price on carbon we can draw the entrepreneurial spirits into Environmental protection, because there is a dollar in it. We know that entrepreneurs make things happen quickly – thus it is crucial to get them involved – in spite of the protests of the deep green ecologists – we need people of action to get things done.  The most important of which is saving our species.

We should not either become too despondent – today thousands of people die or meet the end of their world – so why should we here in the cosseted and well fed West worry about the end of the world? 

Well, we should worry that we will have grandchildren and we need a planet for them – we need to act today to give them a hope of a future.  To avoid duplicity and cheating – we have ISO 14064 – a most pure and decent way to measure our GHG emissions and GHG reductions, which can be shown to our relatives in Russia, China, India, Brazil and South East Asia, along with our Western colleagues we can now be certain of what we are talking about – this is a first – up to now we were guessing.